Thursday, 12 June 2014

The World Cup Preview Edition


The tournament is but upon us, dreams are set to be made and unmade, hopes to be raised and dashed and one lucky winner will emerge sweaty and victorious in a month’s time. Who will it be? Who will shine? Who will fail? Let the Monkey be your guide…

The Guide to the Groups:

Group A: Expect Brazil to overcome Croatia in a tricky opener before coasting to easy victories against Mexico, who are woeful, and Cameroon, who are on strike.
Group B: A real humdinger of a group will see Australia horribly exposed against the attacking might of Chile, the tactical nous of Holland and the metronomic passing of Spain. A tough one to predict, but Spain should prevail.
Group C: Arguably the weakest group and expect few goals from Greece and Japan. Ivory Coast often flatter to deceive and Columbia have been rocked by the loss of their star striker. Given the conditions, it’s hard to look past the South Americans to come out on top of this one.
Group D: Italy v England is the key match here, with Uruguay expected to roll over Costa Rica and build early momentum. Games involving England will be tight and almost certainly boring beyond all reason.
Group E: Another strangely weak group should see France and Switzerland safely through at the expense of their South American cousins. How exactly were Switzerland seeded?
Group F: Argentina to score 65 goals and leave the other three teams to fight off the scraps for second. Everybody will rave about them, tip them to leave all others in their wake and then watch as they lose to the first decent side they play in the knockouts.
Group G: Arguably the toughest group of all with the Germans, Portugal (ranked 3rd in the world), the best team in Africa and the best team in er… North America. Whoever qualifies will have deserved it. Bank on Germany and then draw one of the others from a hat.
Group H: An interesting group featuring the underrated Algeria, the overrated Belgium and the wildly unpredictable Russia and North Korea, who everyone seems to have forgotten are even here. Belgium are well fancied, but this group will not be as easy for them as people are thinking.

Who will win:
Almost certainly one of Brazil, Spain, Argentina or Germany. The hosts are favourites and that’s probably just about fair, especially if Oscar and Neymar shine, but they are far from the great team of old. Spain are the holders, they know how to win at this level when it matters and have still not conceded a knockout goal in a barely conceivable three consecutive tournaments. The front four of Argentina are so good they have to be considered a major threat, even if their defence is made of balsa. And finally the Germans, whose chances have dimmed slightly with the injury to Reus but will still play with style and purpose and have enough talent to emerge triumphant.

The outside tip:
Columbia. Even without Falcao the South Americans have a fearsome attack and boast Jackson Martinez and James Rodriguez. Indeed, the latter  was 5/1 on betfair earlier in the week to be his team’s top scorer. He will take all the penalties and free kicks and has been described as the most talented player in the country’s history. Get. In. On. That. Action. If they win the group they will likely face a tired, hot and combustible England or Italy in the second round and will almost certainly have too much pace and power for either. A humdinger of a quarter final with Brazil could beckon.

Who will win the Golden Boot:

Probably somebody from Argentina given their group, but there is a risk of Higuain, Messi and Aguero sharing the goals around and allowing an outside option such as Benzema, Ballotelli, Rodriguez or Van Persie (if Holland can get through their group) to sneak in. Neymar is also well fancied, and if he wins this he will likely have shot his country to glory.

How will England do:
Awfully. There has been much talk of the young, talented players at our disposal but that will mean nothing when a barely fit Rooney lines up against Italy and Milner comes on as first sub. Beyond that though, it is impossible to overstate how little the conditions will suit England. They may well make it past the group as Italy will face similar problems but any decent team will batter them. A narrow loss in the Quarter Final would be a phenomenal achievement in the circumstances.

What to look forward to:
Goals. With the notable exception of most of group C, this should be a tournament where the cup runneth over with attacking play. It will be hot and humid and teams will not be able to press for very long. This will mean more space, more open play and a lot more errors as the games reach their conclusions. The Brazilian crowd like to be entertained and expect them to turn quickly on any side not playing in a positive manner. Also, as a general rule, the standard of defending over the past five years has decreased markedly amongst the big teams. Brazil have three players who should by rights be midfielders in their back four and Argentina have three players who by rights shouldn’t even be footballers in theirs. That these teams are considered the favourites despite that, says everything about what people expect this World Cup to be. Open, direct and a veritable feast of net busting action.

Or maybe I’m just dreaming.

Waves flag.

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